A discounted cash flow model estimates what a business's future cash flows could be worth today. It forecasts cash flows for some years, adds a terminal value for the years after, brings everything back to today with a discount rate, and then adjusts for cash and debt.
FCFF(t) = FCFF(t−1) × (1 + growth)
PV = FCFF(t) ÷ (1 + r)^t
Terminal value = FCFF(n) × (1 + g) ÷ (r − g)
EV = Σ PV of forecast + PV of terminal value
Equity value = EV + cash − debt − other claims
Value per share = Equity value ÷ diluted shares
Hypothetical example · A made-up company
- Starting FCFF 100, grows 10% a year for 3 years: 110, 121, 133.1.
- With r = 10%, each year's present value is exactly 100, so they sum to 300.
- Terminal value (g = 2%) = 133.1 × 1.02 ÷ 0.08 ≈ 1,697.0. Its present value ≈ 1,275.
- EV ≈ 300 + 1,275 = 1,575.
- Add cash 100, subtract debt 300 and other claims 50: equity value 1,325. With 100 shares: 13.25 per share.
Limitations
- The result is only as good as the assumptions behind it.
- Small changes in the rates can change the result a lot.
- It is an estimate, not an objective or guaranteed value.
Open the DCF